SPLYLINE #001

Your weekly signal report for supply chain & operations leaders.Quick takes on freight volatility, sourcing shifts, and what's changing on the ground.

June 27, 2025

🔍 Lead Insight: Rate Drops Signal Strategy, Not Stability

WCI spot rates fell sharply last week:

  • Asia–USWC: ↓ $985/FFE (now $3,640)

  • Asia–USEC: ↓ $780 over 2 weeks (now $5,890)

Despite the declines, rates remain well above pre-tariff pause levels:

  • USWC: still +$1,000 vs early 2025

  • USEC: still +$2,000

Why this matters:
This isn’t market correction — it’s market management. Carriers are manipulating supply via blank sailings and service pullbacks to stabilize pricing.

What to do:
Don’t assume rates will stay down. Prepare for new GRIs in July. Secure space commitments, not just favorable rates.

  • Schedule reliability rose to 66% in May — the second-highest monthly jump since 2011

  • Asia–N. Europe: SCFI shows a four-week upward trend

  • Asia–Med: Holding above $4,000/FFE

  • Hapag-Lloyd GRIs:

    • $1,000/40' → Far East to West Coast of South/Central America

    • $500/40' → Pakistan/India to Europe

Strategy Brief:
A 66% on-time rate is still far below pre-COVID norms. Avoid cutting lead-time buffers unless you’re actively tracking actuals lane by lane.

Sources: Sea-Intelligence, Freightos, Hapag-Lloyd

🌐 Regulatory Watch: FMC vs WSC

The FMC has ordered the World Shipping Council (WSC) to prove that its 2020 agreement — which provides antitrust exemptions — falls within FMC jurisdiction.

Why this matters:
If the WSC agreement is ruled out of scope, members lose antitrust protections — reshaping how carriers align on rates and capacity.

  • Brief due: August 26, 2025

  • Ruling expected: March 26, 2026

Source: FMC (https://www.fmc.gov)

📊 Macro Metric Pulse

  • Strait of Hormuz: Normal vessel traffic; JMIC has ended daily reporting

  • Consumer Trends: 68% of U.S. shoppers are now value-driven (Deloitte)

  • Panama Canal: Daily transit slots increased from 24 → 32, easing congestion

Action:

  • Run cash flow + DIO scenarios using extended lead times

  • Reassess port mix — East Coast lanes now more stable

  • Coordinate marketing ops with value-first consumer positioning

⚙️ Operator Tactic of the Week

Use rate softness to negotiate space, not just price.
When rates fall artificially, carriers get choosy. Don’t chase lowest cost at the expense of allocation.

What to ask for instead:

  • Guaranteed allocation

  • Blank sailing exemptions

  • Flex on booking windows or free time

🧰 Ops Toolkit: Vendor Scorecard (Coming Next Week)

A plug-and-play Excel tool to help you assess and rank your suppliers with objectivity and speed.

Includes:

  • Weighted scoring on cost, communication, lead time, and quality

  • Auto-ranking with visual indicators

  • Works for QBRs, new sourcing rounds, or vendor cuts

📩 Available free to subscribers in next week’s issue.

📦 Industry Snapshots

📬 Final Word

SPLYLINE brings clarity to a fast-moving global trade environment. If you're building sourcing strategy or protecting margins, this is your edge.


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