The week of September 21–25, 2026

The Tariff Clock Slowed Down. The Cost Clock Didn't.

The China truce slides to January 10, but diesel hits a record $6.529, the Fed hikes to 3.75–4%, and a 57.0 factory PMI shows supplier delays at a four-year high.

Read the issueJosh Hoffner, 14 min read

This week in numbers

The figures this issue turns on. An orange rule marks a reading that rose.

Retail diesel (DOE weekly)
$6.529/gal
▲ 24.4¢ WoW; ~74% above a year ago
Drewry World Container Index
$4,468/40ft
▼ 1% WoW; Shanghai–LA ▲ 2% to $7,838
Fed funds target range
3.75–4.00%
▲ 25 bp Sept 16, first hike since 2023
S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI
57.0
▲ from 53.9; highest since May 2022
August retail sales
+1.2% MoM
+6.0% YoY; control group +1.4%
U.S.–China truce expiry
Jan. 10, 2027
Moved from Nov. 10

Recent issues

Freight Inflation Just Became the Macro StoryDiesel sets an all-time record near $5.97, truckload spot rates rise across every equipment type, holiday parcel surcharges jump about 25%, and a Fed rate hike looks likely.

Costs moving faster than your plan?

Book a 30-minute Operational Pressure Check with Josh Hoffner of Cedar Advisory.

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