The week of September 28–October 2, 2026

The Inventory Arrived. The Confidence Left.

Wholesale inventories run 6.6% above a year ago as consumer confidence drops to 81.9, Target cuts 2,000 prices, diesel snaps its record streak at $6.382, and a 100% pharma tariff takes effect.

Read the issueJosh Hoffner, 14 min read

This week in numbers

The figures this issue turns on. An orange rule marks a reading that rose.

Conference Board consumer confidence
81.9
▼ 6.7 pts from 88.6; expectations 63.6
Wholesale inventories (Aug, advance)
$965.7B
▲ 0.7% MoM; ▲ 6.6% YoY
Retail diesel (DOE weekly)
$6.382/gal
▼ 14.7¢ WoW; first drop after three records
Freightos FBX Asia–US West Coast
~$8,400/FEU
▲ 4% WoW; 2026 high
DAT van all-in spot rate
$3.01/mi
▲ 5¢ WoW; linehaul flat at $2.17
Chicago Business Barometer (Sept)
58.8
▲ 11.7 pts; highest since May

Recent issues

The Tariff Clock Slowed Down. The Cost Clock Didn't.The China truce slides to January 10, but diesel hits a record $6.529, the Fed hikes to 3.75–4%, and a 57.0 factory PMI shows supplier delays at a four-year high.

Costs moving faster than your plan?

Book a 30-minute Operational Pressure Check with Josh Hoffner of Cedar Advisory.

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