Latest issue · Week of September 21–25, 2026

The Tariff Clock Slowed Down. The Cost Clock Didn't.

The China truce slides to January 10, but diesel hits a record $6.529, the Fed hikes to 3.75–4%, and a 57.0 factory PMI shows supplier delays at a four-year high.

By Josh Hoffner · 14 min read · Read the issue →

This week in numbers

Retail diesel (DOE weekly)
$6.529/gal
▲ 24.4¢ WoW; ~74% above a year ago
Drewry World Container Index
$4,468/40ft
▼ 1% WoW; Shanghai–LA ▲ 2% to $7,838
Fed funds target range
3.75–4.00%
▲ 25 bp Sept 16, first hike since 2023
S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI
57.0
▲ from 53.9; highest since May 2022
August retail sales
+1.2% MoM
+6.0% YoY; control group +1.4%
U.S.–China truce expiry
Jan. 10, 2027
Moved from Nov. 10

Previous issues

  1. Freight Inflation Just Became the Macro Story

    Diesel sets an all-time record near $5.97, truckload spot rates rise across every equipment type, holiday parcel surcharges jump about 25%, and a Fed rate hike looks likely.

  2. The Constraint Moved Off the Balance Sheet and Onto the Map

    Drought throttles the Panama Canal, a typhoon strands 139 ships off Shanghai, a trucking enforcement purge tightens capacity, and a new tariff wall goes up with Canada.

  3. The Inversion Flipped: Transpacific Rates Surge as Truckload Cools

    Ocean rates climb to $4,526 per box with Shanghai–New York up 9%, while truckload spot rates roll over and flatbed posts its steepest drop since 2008.

  4. Section 301 Replaces Section 122 Without a Gap

    Section 122's 10% surcharge expires and new Section 301 duties take effect the same minute, while diesel jumps on Hormuz and the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger clears another hurdle.

  5. Peak Season Kicks the Door Down

    Ocean spot rates jump 20–31% in a week, factory activity hits a four-year high, and truckload spot runs its hottest since 2022 as consumer confidence slips.

  6. A Supreme Court Ruling Upends Freight Brokerage

    The Supreme Court's 9-0 Montgomery ruling strips brokers of a key liability defense, the STB accepts the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern application, and Beijing's trade deals stay on paper.

  7. Rates Up, Carriers Down: A Week of Opposite Signals

    Container rates hit a 2026 high while Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM post losses, the Trump–Xi summit yields a 200-plane Boeing order, and consumer sentiment sets another record low.

  8. Tariff Pass-Through Finally Shows Up in the Data

    April PPI jumps 1.4%, nearly triple forecasts, as wholesalers pass tariffs through, and the Federal Circuit pauses the ruling that struck down the Section 122 tariff.

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